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David Schoenfield
We’ve inched past the quarter pole of the 2025 MLB season and, in many ways, the season has gone as expected: The American League looks to have a crowded playoff race, the Los Angeles Dodgers are good even with a slew of pitching injuries, contending National League teams are living up to expectations and we have some awful squads at the bottom of the overall standings.
That doesn’t leave a lot of room for surprises, but let’s look at five clubs that began the season with projected playoff odds of less than 50%, according to ESPN reporter Bradford Doolittle’s initial preseason projections, and have so far exceeded those predictions.
Which of these teams are for real and which might be early-season flukes? We’ll start with a red-hot AL team that has dominated the first two months — and no, it’s not the New York Yankees.
(All stats through Sunday.)
Preseason playoff odds: 41.2%
Key stat: Last season, the Tigers hit 162 home runs in 162 games. This season, they hit 60 in their first 47 games, a pace of 207. The team OBP has improved from .300 (29th in the majors) to .333 (sixth). As a result, Detroit has increased its runs per game from 4.21 to 5.38.
Hot start: Former No. 1 picks Spencer Torkelson and Casey Mize both scuffled in 2024, with Torkelson finding himself demoted to Triple-A at one point and finishing with 10 home runs and 0.3 WAR, and Mize going 2-6 with a 4.49 ERA and 0.2 WAR. Torkelson already has 12 home runs and ranks among MLB’s best in RBIs, while Mize is 6-1 with a 2.53 ERA.
Can he keep it going? Javier Baez was so bad in 2023 and 2024 that he likely would have been let go if he didn’t still have three seasons left on his contract. However, not only is he hitting .291/.326/.485 in 2025, but he has moved to center field with Parker Meadows injured and looks like a natural out there.
Area of concern: Third base? Starting pitching depth? Really, the Tigers have shown no obvious weakness so far. Once Meadows returns, Baez can always move to third base if needed, keeping Zach McKinstry in a utility role. Sawyer Gipson-Long has started a rehab assignment, and the Double-A rotation is stacked if help is eventually needed in the rotation.
The question at this point isn’t if the Tigers are for real, but rather if they have a chance to be the best team in Tigers history. The 1984 team holds the club record with 104 wins and had that famous 35-5 start on its way to a World Series title. The 2025 Tigers are on pace for 107 wins after 47 games. They’ve been extremely well-rounded with a surprisingly deep lineup, solid defense, Tarik Skubal leading a good rotation and a bullpen picking up where it left off from last year’s out-of-nowhere trip to the postseason. Detroit has done all this with Matt Vierling and Meadows — who were second and third among position players a year ago in WAR — injured so far this season.
Mize has been a nice surprise as well, walking just nine batters in seven starts, and he should remain effective if he keeps doing that. With Skubal leading the way, the Tigers rank second to only the Philadelphia Phillies in strikeout rate among starting pitchers. The bullpen isn’t quite as dominant in that department (17th in the majors), but that’s also the easiest area to add to at the trade deadline if necessary.
If you want to nitpick, you could point to the lack of one consistent closer, as changeup specialist Tommy Kahnle, Will Vest and Brant Hurter have split duties with 12 saves between them. It’s unconventional, but all three have been effective, and manager A.J. Hinch and pitching coach Chris Fetter have certainly shown over the past two seasons they know how to work a bullpen. While some of the Tigers’ hitters can be expected to regress — Baez, in particular — getting Vierling and Meadows back will give Hinch all kinds of lineup flexibility to maximize matchups.
This probably isn’t a 107-win team or even a 104-win team, but this could be Detroit’s first 95-win team since 2011.
Verdict: Real
Preseason playoff odds: 33.9%
Key stat: The Cardinals went 12-1 from May 4 to 17, posting a 2.33 ERA and throwing three shutouts in that stretch. The rotation ranks a solid eighth in the majors with a 3.64 ERA — although just 25th in strikeout rate.
Hot start: Brendan Donovan is hitting .330/.387/.466 with 15 doubles. Ivan Herrera missed a month with a bone bruise in his knee but is hitting .429 in 15 games with 11 of his 21 hits going for extra bases.
Can he keep it going? Matthew Liberatore pitched primarily out of the bullpen in 2024, but the 25-year-old lefty has moved into the rotation and is 3-3 with a 2.92 ERA and an impressive 47-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Area of concern: Former top prospect Jordan Walker was up and down between the Cardinals and Triple-A last year, struggling while in the big leagues with a .201 average. Given another opportunity at regular duty, he’s off to a slow start, hitting .189 with 44 strikeouts in 145 plate appearances.
The Cardinals dropped to 14-19 in early May and looked kind of like what everyone expected: not very interesting and not very likely to be a factor in the NL Central race. Then came that hot streak, and while it included sweeps of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals, it also included series wins over the Phillies, New York Mets and Kansas City Royals. Indeed, there’s nothing fluky in the team’s overall win-loss record, with a plus-38 run differential — heck, St. Louis is even 0-4 in extra-inning games to drag the record down a bit.
The number that jumps out, however, is the strikeout rate from the rotation. Erick Fedde, Andre Pallante and Miles Mikolas are all averaging fewer than 6.0 K’s per nine, and it’s difficult to remain successful in this baseball era with strikeout rates that low. Of 116 pitchers with at least 40 innings, that trio ranks 105th, 106th and 111th in strikeout rate and has also combined for a 3.77 ERA. Add in Liberatore and Sonny Gray, and that’s a rotation that could make the playoffs — if they can keep it going. I’m skeptical, although Pallante in particular is an extreme ground ball pitcher and has great infield defense behind him with Masyn Winn, Nolan Arenado and Donovan.
The offense feels a bit more like the real deal, even as Walker and Nolan Gorman struggle. Victor Scott II has been much better after being overmatched in the majors a year ago, and Winn has a .349 OBP after looking lost in spring training, when he went 4-for-50. If Scott and Winn can provide decent enough offense to go with their defense, it makes the lineup a little deeper and helps make up for the team’s overall lack of power.
In the end, those are two things that pop out: the lack of strikeouts from the starting pitchers and the offense having not quite enough power. There is potential here to surprise and battle the Chicago Cubs for the division, but for now, I’m not completely sold.
Verdict: Not real
Preseason playoff odds: 24.6%
Key stat: Relievers Camilo Doval, Tyler Rogers, Randy Rodriguez and Erik Miller are a combined 10-2 with a 1.27 ERA in 78 innings while holding batters to a .164 average.
Hot start: Logan Webb looks better than ever with a 2.42 ERA, just two home runs allowed and a career-high 27.4% strikeout rate.
Can he keep it going? Wilmer Flores has 10 home runs and leads the majors with 42 RBIs, even though his overall batting line doesn’t pop out at .258/.324/.454. He has hit .395 with runners in scoring position, and his home runs include one grand slam and three with two runners on.
Area of concern: Jordan Hicks just got removed from the rotation with a 6.55 ERA and Justin Verlander remains winless in nine starts. Giants first basemen are hitting .189 with just four home runs and their catchers rank next to last in OPS in the majors (although defensive stalwart Patrick Bailey isn’t going anywhere).
Maybe the most impressive aspect of the Giants’ start is that they’re winning even though the entire team hasn’t necessarily clicked on all cylinders. Besides the concerns listed above, Willy Adames got off to a slow start and closer Ryan Walker has had a couple of hiccups. The bullpen has otherwise been dominant, however, and could get even better with the hard-throwing Hicks moving back there with Hayden Birdsong getting a shot in the rotation.
Can San Francisco keep it going? It’s worth noting the Giants haven’t played the Dodgers yet and went 0-2 against the San Diego Padres and 1-2 against the Arizona Diamondbacks in their lone series against those other NL West rivals. Flores probably isn’t going to finish with 145 RBIs — the pace he’s currently on. Indeed, the entire lineup has hit especially well with runners in scoring position, ranking third in OPS behind the Dodgers and Cubs (but ranking just 15th in overall OPS).
The Giants need to get Adames going on a consistent basis and need to get more from first base, but the bullpen has a chance to be special, with Rodriguez emerging as a top setup guy and Doval pitching well again after struggling with his command last year. For now, I’m a believer. Let’s see what happens with that first series against the Dodgers in June.
Verdict: Real
Preseason playoff odds: 19%
Key stat: Based on their underlying statistics, the Guardians would be an expected 19-27, not 25-21. Most of the “clutch” performance has come on the pitching side, where they’ve allowed 4.39 runs per game against an expected total of 4.80 runs per game.
Hot start: Hunter Gaddis is showing last year’s 1.78 ERA was no fluke as he has a 1.00 ERA through 18 innings with 26 strikeouts. The only two runs he allowed both came on solo home runs.
Can he keep it going? Kyle Manzardo is hitting .221 with a .309 OBP but has 10 home runs and is slugging .493. That puts him on pace to hit 35 home runs — essentially replacing the power production of the traded Josh Naylor.
Area of concern: The rotation ranks 21st in the majors in ERA, 19th in strikeout rate, 24th in innings and 25th in OPS allowed. Cleveland isn’t getting any offense from shortstop with Brayan Rocchio hitting .165, and his defensive metrics haven’t been as impressive as they were in 2024 (although they’re still average overall).
Even though they won 92 games and reached the American League Championship Series last season, the preseason prognostications weren’t high on the Guardians, with concerns about the starting rotation plus factoring in some regression from the historic performance of last year’s bullpen. Emmanuel Clase had some early bumps, but the bullpen has been solid overall, ranking fifth in the majors in win probability added. The rotation, no surprise, hasn’t dominated, especially with Tanner Bibee seeing dips in his numbers across the board (his strikeout rate, in particular, has dropped from 26.3% to 16.4%, a huge year-to-year decrease).
You can see where this is headed: The Guardians are fortunate to be four games over .500. The offense, even with Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan, probably isn’t good enough to overcome a shaky rotation over the long haul of a 162-game season. Additionally, with Andres Gimenez in Toronto and Rocchio’s defense not as good early on, the defense hasn’t been nearly as impressive as it was last season — the team batting average allowed on balls in play has jumped from .277 to .313.
Still, at least Cleveland has put itself in a contending position. The rotation had been healthy, with the top five guys starting 44 of the team’s 46 games, until Ben Lively went on the injured list last week with a forearm strain. Slade Cecconi had a strong start filling in for Lively, so he now becomes a huge key. And maybe the Guardians will get Shane Bieber back at some point.
In the meantime, they’ll be tested over the next month, with series against the Minnesota Twins, Tigers, Dodgers, Yankees, Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners and Giants. If they can survive this stretch, we’ve learned to never count out the Guardians, but for now, it feels like they’ve overachieved.
Verdict: Not real
Preseason playoff odds: 8.4%
Key stat: The A’s were just one game out of first place in the AL West after beating Seattle on May 5, but then they went 2-9 against the Mariners, Yankees, Dodgers and Giants to fall under .500.
Hot start: Jacob Wilson is hitting .337/.369/.478 with just 10 strikeouts in 188 plate appearances.
Can he keep it going? In Tyler Soderstrom’s case, maybe not. He was hitting .315 with nine home runs through his first 19 games but hit .243 with just one home run in his next 28 games.
Area of concern: The A’s have a lack of front-line pitching, both in the rotation and the bullpen. In going 6-10 to start May, they posted a 6.13 ERA, including six games in which they allowed at least nine runs. The team’s defense isn’t helping — it ranks last in the majors in defensive runs saved.
The Athletics looked a lot more like a viable playoff contender 10 days ago but struggled in this brutal stretch against winning teams, losing four consecutive series. Indeed, the A’s are 7-12 in blowout games — those decided by five or more runs — and that’s an indicator that they might not stay relevant for the duration of the season.
On the other hand: It’s possible no team runs away with the AL West. The Mariners have three starting pitchers on the IL, stressing a pitching staff that’s already without much depth, while the Texas Rangers and Astros have both scuffled to score runs at times. One little winning streak and the A’s can climb right back into it.
Two keys: Lawrence Butler and Nick Kurtz. Butler was on my breakout list after hitting .302/.346/.597 over the final three months last season, but he’s hitting .227/.292/.386 in 2025 with a lot of swing-and-miss (he was in the 37th percentile last season in whiff rate but has dropped to the eighth percentile). Kurtz looked ready for the majors after ripping up Triple-A to begin the season, but he has been overmatched so far, hitting .219 with one home run and 30 strikeouts in 81 plate appearances. He’s going to have to improve the contact rate, or a demotion back to the minors might be forthcoming.
This is still a fun up-and-coming team. Wilson looks like a hitter who will contend for batting titles year after year with his ability to put the ball in play. I still believe in Butler and Kurtz. But the A’s rank 26th in rotation ERA and 28th in bullpen ERA. Some of that is Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park, but they’re also still 20th in road ERA. They probably don’t have the pitching to stay close all season, even in a mediocre AL West.
